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Deal Win Probability + Risk Signals

Every open deal in your pipeline gets a persistent health score (0–100) and a list of risk + success signals refreshed daily. Pipeline cards show colored health dots, the deal editor surfaces the signal list, and "Deals at Risk" widgets surface the bottom of the funnel.

Steps

  1. No setup required — the daily worker (6am UTC) scores every open PipelineItem in every active pipeline.
  2. On the Kanban board, each deal card shows a small green/amber/red dot in the corner. Hover for the top signal (e.g., "Stalled deal — no activity in 14 days").
  3. Click a deal to open the editor and see the full Deal Health card: score, win probability %, risk signals (red/amber), success signals (green).
  4. Use the "Deals at Risk" widget above the Kanban (or the /ai/deal-health/at-risk endpoint) to triage the worst-health deals across all pipelines at once.
  5. Pipeline Forecast page now has an "AI Forecast" tab combining deal health + win probability into a monthly revenue prediction.
  6. On stage change, the deal is re-scored within minutes (queued via the deal-autopsy worker). No manual rescoring needed for most cases.

Good to know

  • Risk signals are rule-based, not AI — "stalled", "no meetings planned", "deal value shrinking" are deterministic checks. AI is only used for the win-probability narrative on the Forecast page.
  • A deal flipping from "healthy" to "at_risk" sends a Socket.io event + in-app notification to the deal owner. Configure who gets notified under Settings > Account > Notifications.
  • If a deal's healthScore disagrees with your gut, expand the signal list — every signal has a severity number so you can see what the engine weighted heaviest.
Example: An AE notices the "Trellis Robotics — $48K" card has gone amber. He hovers: "Stage stagnation — 12 days in Demo Booked vs 4-day average". The Deal Health card lists three more risks (engagement dropping, no follow-up sent, close date pushed twice). He picks up the phone instead of waiting another week — closes the deal 9 days later.

Troubleshooting

No health dot on a deal card
The deal hasn't been scored yet (newly created deals wait for the next worker pass) or the deal is in a "closed won/lost" stage (terminal stages are skipped).
Fix: Wait for the next 6am UTC scan, or open the deal — the editor triggers an on-demand score.
All my deals are "at_risk" or "critical"
Brand-new orgs / pipelines with little activity history fail many of the success signals (engagement, momentum, multi-threading) by default. Severity is calibrated to mature pipelines.
Fix: Run the pipeline for 2–3 weeks with normal activity logging before reading too much into the colors. Or disable the feature entirely under Settings > AI Usage > AI Features (key: deal_health) until you have history.
Win probability seems off
Probability blends stage-based defaults (early=20%, mid=50%, late=75%, proposal=85%) with healthScore — a healthy proposal-stage deal can show 60-70%, not 85%, because health pulls it down.
Fix: This is by design — Salesforce-style "stage-only" probabilities are usually too rosy. If you want stage-only, override on the deal manually; it persists.

Plans

Included in every plan. Daily scoring is mostly rule-based (low AI cost); the AI Forecast tab calls the standard-tier model on demand. Toggleable per-org under Settings > AI Usage > AI Features (key: deal_health).

Related

  • Pipeline Coach (deal-specific Q&A on the right sidebar)
  • AI Revenue Forecasting (uses deal health + win probability for monthly revenue prediction)
  • Pipeline Pulse & Playbooks (proactive next-step recommendations per deal)

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